The oldest cryptocurrency in the world, Bitcoin, has drawn interest from investors, admirers, con artists, and, more lately, authorities since it launched in 2009.
For several adherents, cryptocurrencies represent not merely a novel form of payment but also a revolutionary technological advancement that popularized the notion of decentralized currencies worldwide and laid the foundation for a completely novel economic model—the cryptocurrency market. Others saw it as a means to make a quick cash, though some of these initial investors went on to become Bitcoin millionaires, numerous others lost hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars trying to forecast its price changes.
It’s true that several, often wildly optimistic, price projections have been made for Bitcoin. Notably, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood projected that by 2030, Bitcoin may amount to an incredible $US1.48 million. The spectacular rise of Bitcoin has left many surprised, as noted by Collective Shift’s senior analyst Nicholas Sciberras. “It’s challenging to set a price target because, depending on the degree of adoption and outside variables in the market, the sky could literally be the limit,” he says.
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Since its initial price of a fraction of a cent was recorded, bitcoin has gone a long way. Since its initial price of one cent or fewer was recorded, bitcoin has gone a long way. On February 26, 2024, the value of one Bitcoin was around $52,000. As Sciberras notes, the notion that a single Bitcoin might someday be valued at a million dollars “really shows how far we’ve come.”
Great heights are conceivable, but so are disastrous lows.
Bitcoin’s Past Price History
The voyage of Bitcoin began in 2009 when its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, published the Bitcoin white paper. When Bitcoin first started out, it was just worth a penny.
Early on in its history, Bitcoin had both steady growth and “bull runs,” or spikes in price that occurred very quickly. In November 2021, the price of Bitcoin reached $US69,000, marking one of the biggest bull runs ever. But as Sciberras notes, there were also times of uncertainty.
According to him, there were numerous proposals for Bitcoin “forks” between 2014 and 2017 that caused the community to split. Hard forks are modifications to the blockchain network’s fundamental protocol that effectively divide a coin in half. Various groups within the community attempted to steer Bitcoin in a different path during these pivotal points in its history. The current version of Bitcoin has endured despite contentious discussions and multiple splits.
“Bitcoin’s resilience and confidence have increased as a result of its ability to withstand these attempts to alter it,” claims Sciberras. With Bitcoin forks becoming a thing of the past and accounting for just over one percent of the cryptocurrency’s total market capitalization, it has withstood numerous storms along with attempts to alter it.
The largest asset manager in the world, BlackRock, filed intentions to launch an ETF (exchange-traded fund) dedicated to bitcoin in June 2023. Soon after BlackRock’s announcement, a number of other institutions joined in, including WisdomTree, ARK Invest, and others, submitting their first applications or amending pre-existing ones. When eleven of the ETF petitions were accepted for trading in the US in January of this year, the worth of Bitcoin surged over $US52,000 in less than a month. One of the most spectacular ETF launches ever, these funds have had some of the biggest inflows since their launch, second only to gold.
A further characteristic that characterizes the price history of BTC is the halving incident, which occurs about every four years and lowers the rate of currency creation. It is anticipated that the subsequent halving will occur in May of this year.
A year prior to and a year following the halving, Sciberras notes, “we’ve seen a significant increase in BTC’s price.” The halving event is seen by many investors as one of the key elements influencing the price of BTC. Sciberras is cautious, though. He states, “It’s still unclear how priced in the halving is or how significant the incident is in the overall context of BTC’s price trajectory.”
“According to one theory, the four-year halving occasion is not as important as many believe; rather, it appears to be a trigger for higher price movement because it aligns with external liquidity cycles.”
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What Will 2024 Bring for Bitcoin?
The way BTC performs in 2024 will rely on a number of possible bullish and bearish events. Numerous factors, including institutional adoption, halving, legislative changes, and macroeconomic trends, will influence BTC’s price in 2024.
A number of enforcement actions that rattled the crypto business in 2023 caused confidence to be shaken. The cryptocurrency exchange Binance, along with its CEO and founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), are the target of a civil enforcement action brought by the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
But in November, Binance reached a settlement with the US Department of Justice, or DoJ, and Treasury, and as a condition of the agreement, CZ agreed to relinquish his position and give up control.
Of particular significance, according to Sciberras, is that Binance “did not observe a bank push on the exchange” and was not charged with mishandling user cash. “The market could not have hoped for a better result, and as a result, cryptocurrency prices rallied,” he says. “Binance represented a massive dark cloud over the cryptocurrency space, but as we approach 2024, this agreement is a huge positive sign.”
Additionally, US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has hinted that the bank may have hit the pinnacle of its cycle of rate hikes, which Sciberras believes could act as impetus for a 2024 BTC boom.
The apparent hedging against traditional financial institutions and increasing scarcity of cryptocurrencies like BTC can make them an appealing spot for investors to deposit wealth when interest rates stabilized or decline—especially as the halving in May draws near.
According to estimates, three 25 basis-point rate decreases are expected in 2024—a more aggressive view than what has been previously indicated, according to Sciberras. Sciberras advises investors to monitor inflation in personal consumption expenditures (the PCE) since Powell has opened the door to additional rate increases should inflation start to creep back up.
With the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs for trading, managing institutions have started amassing Bitcoin to hold as collateral for ETF shares, resulting in notable capital inflows into BTC. Over $US5 billion has been invested in BlackRock’s Bitcoin since its inception in early January, and an additional $US6 billion has been invested in the other ETFs. As money pours into the ETFs, these inflows could create consistent buying pressure for BTC, which could push the price of the cryptocurrency even higher over the course of the year.
Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025
BTC has the ability to surpass the elusive $100k barrier, and the consequences of the halving event will last well beyond 2025. What, though, is “everything else”?
The macroeconomic reasons for improvement are included under “everything else.” The global economy may do well in 2025, and if inflation stays low and interest rates continue to decline after a sharp increase in 2023. More regulation of cryptocurrency alternative coins (altcoins) may also inspire confidence in an increasing number of investors who may choose to hold BTC after making their first investment.
Furthermore, institutional entities, such as retirement funds, may include BTC in their portfolios if the cryptocurrency market is subject to more regulation. Retirement funds worth trillions of dollars that are currently prohibited from investing in BTC might become accessible as a result of this. The only significant US supplier of 401(k) plans that now allows direct Bitcoin investing is Fidelity.
However, there is also the impact of the BTC Halving incident, which usually prompts record-breaking levels 12–18 months following the event—a tremendously encouraging addition to what appears to be a promising future for BTC in 2025.
Combining all of these variables, we project that in 2025, BTC will reach highs of $12,000 and lows of $50,000 before falling below the psychologically significant $100k barrier. Additionally, we project that the average price of BTC will be $65,000 in 2025.
Conclusion
We see an optimistic long-term outlook for Bitcoin, particularly in light of the impending BTC reducing in early 2024, which has traditionally been a significant driver of cryptocurrency bull runs.
In addition, the licensing of Ethereum ETFs during May and the issuance of daily Bitcoin EFTs have served as significant catalysts for the cryptocurrency industry in 2024. As of right now, BTC is trading above $72,000 and the total market value has more than doubled year over year to $2.71 trillion.
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