There are growing worries that Israel’s war in Gaza may turn into a regional conflict with serious political and economic ramifications due to the increasing attacks on US troops, commercial shipping, and incidents frequently involving Iran as well as its proxies.
An increasingly precarious situation is putting United states service members in danger, and multiple drone attacks have put United States as well as allied naval forces on critical alert. As a result, the White House is expecting a tense holiday season.
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A new and unwanted foreign crisis for President Joe Biden as his reelection year approaches is the growing likelihood of United States combat deaths and the deteriorating security from the Indian Ocean down to the Red Sea, extending through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel.
Additionally, it’s turning into a test tube for an emerging geopolitical trend in which America’s enemies and their proxies continuously put its resolve and credibility to the test. Israel’s threats that the war towards Hamas in the Gaza will rage for months, in spite of United States pressure to reduce the magnitude of the fighting, increase the likelihood that the conflict will spiral out of reach and ensnare the United States.
A series of risky increases; US move’s
Even though Israel as well as Hezbollah forces were only sparring on one of the most precarious fronts in the region—the attack on October 7 that killed 1,200 Israelis and Israel introduced its onslaught on Gaza—the initial fear that a regional war might break out did not materialise.
However, the rate at which attacks and escalations have increased recently seems to be gaining its own lethal impetus, escalating concerns about tensions continuing to rise.
Monday saw Biden issue an order for airstrikes against locations in Iraq that were utilized by pro-Iranian Kataib Hezbollah militias fighters. The United States claimed that these fighters had attacked Erbil Air Base with a drone, leaving one American service member gravely injured. It was the most recent assault by Iranian proxies on United States troops conducting counterterrorism operations in Syria or Iraq.
The Houthi rebels, an organization supported by Iran in Yemen, launched a flurry of missiles and drones over the Red Sea on Tuesday, according to United States Central Command. The United States previously claimed that Iranian intelligence was actively involved in helping to plan attacks on commercial shipping. As a result, some goods lines decided to reroute their ships around Africa rather than take the more cost-effective route through the Suez Canal, raising concerns about the stability of the global supply chain. Iran has vehemently denied any involvement.
After an Iranian target drone struck a chemical tanker travelling through the Indian Ocean on Saturday, approximately 200 nautical miles off the coast of India, the Pentagon said that the instability’s geographic footprint is now extending towards India. Iran has consistently denied any involvement.
Iran and a number of its allies charged that Israel had carried out an airstrike in a suburb of Damascus, Syria, killing a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. The IRGC threatened to exact revenge for the death of Seyyed Razi Mousavi, declaring that “the Israeli regime will certainly pay the cost for this crime.” Israel declined to comment on the allegations.
The ramifications of a deteriorating security environment
The wave of new events highlights the possibility of a risky escalation of the conflict, reveals the degree of direct danger facing United States forces, and helps to explain Washington’s growing calls for Israel to end the war in Gaza.
Following the three presidents who attempted to pull out of the Middle East, future events involving the deaths of United States soldiers or significant damage to naval assets would force Washington to make the difficult decision to re-enter the region.
Former United State government hostage recovery director Christopher O’Leary stated on Tuesday that although the regional situation has not yet reached worst-case scenarios, there is always a chance that things could get worse.
“The conflict between Israel and Hamas is a component of the larger plan of the axis of resistance, which is the Iran-mandated approach to gain influence and power in the region through groups, proxies like Hamas, such as Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Kataib Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis,” O’Leary stated.
“There have been persistent attacks, but they have been somewhat restrained, such as the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea. However, these are apprehensions about what might occur. Indeed, we have a serious regional issue with Iran if they truly remove their gloves and unleash their surrogate forces against the American forces stationed in Syria and Iraq.
Due to their proximity to Iranian-aligned militant groups, United States troops in both Syria and Iraq face an extremely perilous situation. Biden has long been criticized by Republicans for not doing enough to discourage these enemies, but his administration has made a concerted effort to prevent turning a delicate situation into a larger conflict. It’s becoming harder to draw the distinction between effective deterrence and proportionate responses. There are concerns regarding how the airbase was so open to drone penetration in light of the attack. More importantly, the question of whether the most recent United States airstrikes, which Iraq denounced as a hostile act, have deterred future attacks is becoming more pressing.
“I think we’re playing whack-a-mole here as well that we need to target these troop deposits and the leadership,” Ret. Maj. Mike Lyons of the US Army told CNN on Tuesday. “I don’t think the Iranians have been able to discern that we are serious about this because of our deterrence.”
Ramifications for the military and economy
The Red Sea is vital to global supply chains for goods and energy, so an expanded conflict could have dire economic effects. Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, and Yemen encircle the waterway on its east and west, respectively. The Sinai Peninsula, bordering Israel and owned by Egypt, is where it empties into the Suez Canal. The canal provides the quickest maritime route among Europe and Asia; however, in 2021, a ship became stuck across its width, causing worldwide repercussions. This incident exposed the canal’s potential for disruption.
Many shipping companies have told their captains to choose the longer and more costly route around Africa because of the threat that drones and missiles pose to their ships and crews. The United States has formed a global partnership to defend merchant ships against Houthi attacks due to the possible economic disruption. Before the holidays, the United States announced that countries like the Seychelles, the Netherlands, Norway, Bahrain, Canada, France, and Italy had signed on.
According to a senior United States military official last week, the Houthis have launched more than 100 attacks towards 12 different commercial as well as shipping vessels in the Red Sea over the past month, representing a “very significant breadth of attacks” not seen in at least “two generations.”
As 2024 approaches, Biden, who is already fully committed to defending Ukraine against a Russian invasion, would have preferred not to have to deal with the prospect of war in the Middle East.
At a time when Biden’s approval ratings hover around 40%, giving the impression that his administration is finding it difficult to maintain control over a world that occasionally seems to be turning out of grasp could be politically damaging. This is dangerous ground for a commander-in-chief running for reelection. Republicans are trying to instill in voters the belief that Biden is incapable of handling the rig ours of a second term, and perceptions that he is not rising to the challenges posed by United States adversaries could exacerbate these worries. Biden is 81 years old.
Even though he disconnected the US from its closest friends and oversaw a period of chaos as well as division both at home and abroad during his first term as president, 77-year-old Donald Trump is trying to paint a picture of global chaos and disrespect for the United States as he promotes his vision of tyrant leadership. Therefore, should things suddenly turn bad for Biden, he won’t have much room for political man oeuvre against the front-runner of the Republican Party.
New talks between the Biden administration and the Israeli government took place on Tuesday against the backdrop of this precarious political situation. This happened after days of US demands for a fewer aggressive stage of the conflict, which resulted in fierce fighting breaking out in Gaza among Israeli and Hamas forces. One of Benjamin Netanyahu’s closest advisors, Ron Dermer, had meetings with representatives from the State Department and the White House. Netanyahu had earlier said that there would be a “long fight” when he visited troops in Gaza.
Yoav Gallant, the defense minister for Israel, said that Israel was facing attacks from seven different sectors, including the West Bank, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza, and that his nation was engaged in a “multi-arena war.” America, and Biden in particular, cannot permit that to become a permanent reality.
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