Moscow — I was one of the many seasoned Kremlin watchers who was mistaken when Russia initiated its full-scale assault of Ukraine two years ago. Few understood why the cunning leader of Russia, Vladimir Putin, would take his country on such a dangerous military expedition, particularly since the mere prospect of a Russian assault was already having an impact.
As Russian forces gathered close to Ukraine in June of the previous year, the United States president Joe Biden fulfilled with Putin at a summit akin to a superpower, praising the Russian leader following earlier US administrations had attempted to minimize Russia’s influence.
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Washington signaled openness to compromise in the days leading up to the 2022 invasion by providing a “pragmatic evaluation” of Moscow’s security concerns. It was unlikely and unusually risky to match Russian forces up against one of the largest standing armies in the area. Some, on the other hand, correctly predicted that the Russians would soon defeat Moscow’s far superior forces, correctly interpreting the Kremlin’s intentions, and seeing the invasion as inevitable.
I like thinking that, after two years, those of us who questioned the Kremlin’s resolve were mistaken for the right justifications. This has been a catastrophic bloodbath, unprecedented in European history, that Moscow still euphemistically refers to as a “Special Military Operation.” Thousands of people on both sides have died and been injured, according to even the most conservative estimates. Even minor victories, like the current record of Avdiivka, have cost a great deal.
The once-respected Russian military has demonstrated that it is terribly unprepared and susceptible to contemporary weaponry in the hands of a resolute Ukrainian resistance. The war’s strength and numbers will probably take many years to recover, even if it ends tomorrow. In addition, Russia has been internally warped and deformed by the terrible conflict of the last two years.
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Several thousand of its citizens quit the country in order to avoid being conscripted. Dissatisfaction with the manner the war was being waged led to an armed rebellion in which Wagner mercenaries brandishing guns marched into Moscow, presenting an unparalleled threat to the Kremlin’s authority.
Russia is currently the nation with the most international sanctions due to widespread contempt. The Hague has indicted President Putin for war crimes. Furthermore, Alexey Navalny, Putin’s most outspoken critic, has passed away. This nation has become even more isolated and dark in the midst of a larger campaign against dissent. When you take a longer look, it becomes tragically obvious which way things are going.
When a newly elected President Putin unleashed an unrelenting Russian military campaign to subdue the rebellious Russian region of Chechnya in 2000, I was there. “We’re going to attack them in the outhouse,” he said in a vulgar yet widely shared tone.
On Putin’s birthday in 2004, prominent Russian journalist Anna Politikovskaya was killed. Her courageous reports from Chechnya made an impression. Both domestically and overseas, other critics were muted.
By 2008, Putin was dividing pro-Russian areas of the Georgian state by intervening in neighboring Georgia. Russian forces had successfully supported the Syrian regime in that nation’s own brutal crackdown on rebellion for years prior to the Crimean Peninsula’s annexation from Ukraine in 2014, despite international condemnation. On February 24, 2022, however, something changed.
Not only did Putin misjudge his desire to annex Ukraine, but what was intended to be a limited campaign has turned into an unrestricted conflict.
Instead, it was Putin’s full-scale assault of Ukraine that marked the end of any pretense of collaboration with the West and the acceptance of dissent and criticism within this magnificent country. Furthermore, there are currently few indications of a course adjustment.
Indeed, after two years of his Special Military Operations, Putin is strengthening his hold on power, silencing his critics and preparing for elections in March that will solidify his candidature for a fifth term as president. Many peoples are still secretly optimistic that things will eventually turn around. However, not many think it’s likely to happen anytime soon.
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